• 2024-06-17
  • 156 comments

U.S. Stocks Rise, Gold & Bitcoin Fall, Analysts Predict Bitcoin Peak in April 2025

On Wednesday morning, financial markets saw mixed trading, with Bitcoin (BTC) and gold prices falling, while stock markets opened underwater but have since been climbing. The early weakness in the stock market was attributed to news that the US Department of Justice is considering asking a judge to force Google to sell key businesses to end its market monopoly.

Asset prices also struggled due to the strengthening US dollar, with the DXY regaining its upward trend in early morning trading, reaching 102.875 points.

Marc Chandler, Chief Market Strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex, said: "We suspect the market overreacted to US employment data, which was influenced by the lowest 'establishment' response in over 20 years, and seasonal adjustments may have been triggered by Hurricane Helen and the Boeing strike." "We believe that Federal Reserve officials, and more today, have confirmed that this is not the game-changer many market participants thought it was, which may be influenced by positions. This does indeed help facilitate the upward adjustment in the US dollar we have been looking for. The US dollar is firm today."

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He added: "The last observation of wholesale inventories in August is unlikely to change anyone's mind, and the Federal Open Market Committee minutes to be released later in the meeting will provide color to what we already know: the median dot now expects another 50 basis point cut in the fourth quarter and another 100 basis point cut in 2025." "We suspect the market's impression of the employment data is more profound than most Federal Reserve officials, partly because the market has deviated from the Federal Reserve's guidelines."

Chandler noted: "Four Federal Reserve officials spoke at today's meeting (Bostic, Logan, Goolsbee, and Jefferson), and two more officials spoke after the market closed (Collins and Daly)." "The highlight of the week is tomorrow's September CPI. The overall inflation rate is expected to slow from 2.5% to 2.3%, while the core inflation rate hovers at 3.2%."

Cryptocurrency prices continued to consolidate overnight, with some mild profit-taking from recently rising stocks, and Bitcoin (BTC) bulls struggling to consolidate support at $62,000.

Alex Kupcsikevich, Senior Market Analyst at FxPro, said: "The cryptocurrency market has stabilized at around $2.17 trillion, a day and a week ago." "The sentiment index has remained in the 49-50 (neutral) range for five consecutive days, which contrasts sharply with the stock market's near 'extreme greed' sentiment. This caution among cryptocurrency investors often heralds a sell-off in the stock market. Nevertheless, this time, it may be due to expectations of Chinese selling and new signals from the Federal Reserve's monetary policy."

He added: "Bitcoin's price has hardly changed in the past 24 hours, remaining at $62.4K, sandwiched between the 200-day moving average and below the 50-day." "Potential triggers for breaking through this range could be the Federal Reserve minutes or US inflation data, if they lead to a reassessment of expectations for traditional markets," Kupcsikevich said. "Technical signals could be deviations from the aforementioned moving averages of $636,000 and $608,000, with the possibility of further breakthroughs."

Currently, digital gold ranks second to physical gold, as King Crypto's volatility is too great for institutional investors to consider it a reliable store of value.Deenar co-founder Maruf Yusupov stated: "The 45% increase in Bitcoin's price so far this year has not offset its extreme volatility risk." "One factor that does not favor Bitcoin as a better alternative to gold as a hedge against inflation is precisely this. According to a recent analysis by Goldman Sachs, Bitcoin has a volatility of 2, while gold has a volatility of 3. This metric measures the rate of return on investment and the associated risk. It is worth noting that when the level of uncertainty is the same, Bitcoin tends to experience more selling than gold."

He pointed out: "Over the past month, this reality has changed, with Bitcoin hovering from a low of $55,000 to a high of $66,000." "During the same period, gold has set multiple historical highs, with the latest pushing the precious metal to $2,685.49. Bitcoin's price is hovering around $62,000, indicating a relatively moderate growth trend, but the possibility of significant declines keeps investors cautious."

That being said, BTC still has some redeeming qualities that make it attractive to investors, and in the long run, Yusupov believes it may eventually challenge gold's market value.

He said: "Ignoring this volatility, Bitcoin has greater technological appeal due to its decentralization and scarcity. Moreover, volatility is somewhat positive." "In the long run, it may also play a role in driving Bitcoin's valuation to catch up and possibly exceed gold's market value. Therefore, some investors generally believe that the potential long-term returns are a fair trade-off for short-term volatility."

CryptoQuant founder and CEO Ki Young-Ju said that as Bitcoin's price consolidates, Bitcoin is around halfway through a bull market cycle, and if history repeats itself, the peak could occur in April 2025.

Currently, Bitcoin is trading at $61,804, down 1.44% on the 24-hour chart.