• 2024-06-29
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Intel Acquisition Spells Doom for US Manufacturing

According to news from American media: The renowned chip designer and seller, Qualcomm, has recently extended an acquisition offer to Intel and has engaged in discussions regarding the merger.

As of this year's second quarter, Intel's revenue still stands at a high of $12.8 billion, significantly higher than Qualcomm's $9.4 billion; why would Qualcomm dare to attempt a David-and-Goliath scenario by extending an acquisition offer to Intel?

This is because, despite Intel's large revenue scale, it suffers from severe losses:

In the first quarter of this year, Intel incurred a loss of $380 million, and in the second quarter, the loss escalated to $1.6 billion; coupled with excessive debt, the financial situation is deteriorating.

However, in contrast to Intel, Qualcomm's financial performance has been impressive:

In the first quarter of this year, Qualcomm made a profit of $2.7 billion, and in the second quarter, it made a profit of $2.3 billion, with a very ample cash flow.

Furthermore, Qualcomm's current market value has reached twice that of Intel, thus Qualcomm has the financial capability to acquire Intel.At this point, some may wonder: why does Intel have a large revenue scale, but suffer such severe losses?

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The answer might hurt the delicate hearts of those who admire the United States and public intellectuals, which is that the American mainland no longer has a favorable environment for the survival of manufacturing industries, even for high-end manufacturing companies like Intel, survival is difficult.

Due to the lack of top talent joining (all have gone to finance and the internet, where salaries are higher and the working environment is better), and the lack of scale advantages for engineers and supply chains (unable to quickly iterate processes and reduce costs), Intel's manufacturing business (chip manufacturing and wafer foundry), since 2014, has been a huge investment, but there is no innovation, and the output is extremely low.

As of today, the competitor TSMC can already mass-produce 3-nanometer chips; Intel is still struggling with the mass production process of 7-10 nanometers at a high cost.

This has led to Intel's manufacturing business losing its competitiveness.

Even American companies like Qualcomm, Nvidia, and AMD also find TSMC and Samsung for contract manufacturing, instead of their own - Intel.

At the same time, Intel's self-developed and self-manufactured PC computer chips have also seen a sharp decline in sales due to the plummeting global shipment of computers.

Under the stimulation of two factors, Intel's manufacturing business has been losing money over the years, with a loss of $7 billion in 2023 alone.

It can be said that the extremely unfriendly environment for manufacturing in the United States is the core reason for Intel's gradual decline and eventual acquisition by Qualcomm, and there is no other reason.In fact, it's not just Intel. In recent years, any American core manufacturing companies involved in "local manufacturing and production," including Boeing, Intel, Ford, Texas Instruments, and others, are either struggling to survive or experiencing a cliff-like decline in performance.

In the second quarter of this year, Boeing's loss amounted to $1.439 billion; at the same time, the operating cash flow was -$3.9 billion, on the brink of bankruptcy. Ford and Texas Instruments also saw a plummet in profits.

Looking back over the past 20 years, there have been almost no world-class manufacturing companies born in the United States.

Apple can only be considered a software ecosystem company, relying entirely on external purchases for components and outsourcing assembly overseas; Tim Cook is as clean as a whistle.

What about Tesla? It can be considered half. But if Tesla hadn't placed its main factory in Shanghai, it would probably have been out of the game by now.

In contrast, China has seen the birth of many world-class manufacturing companies in the past 20 years, such as BYD, CATL, DJI drones, Huawei's consumer business, CRRC, CSSC, and so on.

In terms of physical innovation, the American manufacturing industry has been in full retreat over the past 20 years, almost exhausting its old capital. The survival difficulties of Intel and Boeing will become the last straw that breaks the camel's back for American manufacturing.

It is reported that regardless of whether Qualcomm succeeds with Intel, Intel, in order to save itself, will shed its manufacturing business, becoming Intel Foundry (Intel's wafer foundry company), allowing it to sink or swim in the market (no longer subsidized by the parent company).

That is to say, even high-end manufacturing like wafer foundry is about to be abandoned by the United States. Despite the U.S. government's continuous desire for the chip manufacturing industry to return to North America, the market ecosystem in the United States simply does not allow manufacturing to thrive smoothly.Ever since the United States experienced financial innovation and the IT internet revolution during the 1970s to the 1990s, American corporations have been on an irreversible path towards a virtual economy. Whether you are in shipbuilding, steel, automobiles, or semiconductors, is it not more appealing to sit in a bright office in New York or Silicon Valley and earn ten times the salary?

The strength of American finance and virtual internet has both made and unmade the United States. As Musk has said: The salaries in the American financial, legal, and internet (including so-called AI) industries are too high, leading to a flood of top talent to New York and Silicon Valley to engage in speculation and create bubbles.

If everyone is busy inflating bubbles, who will take care of physical manufacturing?