- 2024-08-22
- 112 comments
Why Russia's Oil Sale to India Results in Big Losses? Unable to Spend Earned Rupees, Seeks Indian Shipbuilding
Over the past two years of the Russo-Ukrainian War, the United States and Western countries have been trying to court India. However, India has remained unmoved and has firmly stood on Russia's side, not only refraining from sanctioning it but also purchasing a significant amount of oil. Why is this the case? Is India truly a country of great loyalty and righteousness? No, it is not. This is because, through decades of interactions with Russia and the Soviet Union, India has gained substantial benefits.
For instance, when the Soviet Union first dissolved, India owed Russia a substantial amount of foreign debt, which India consistently failed to repay. However, one day, Russia underwent a shock therapy economic reform that failed, causing the ruble to plummet dramatically. The exchange rate between the ruble and the US dollar went from nearly 1 to 1 to 1 to 1000, or even 1 to 10,000. As a result, India saw an opportunity and announced the repayment of the long-standing debt to Russia. Due to the wild devaluation of the ruble, India essentially repaid the debt with less than one-thousandth of the original amount, leaving Russia with no choice but to swallow the bitter pill.
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Recently, there has been news that Russia has placed a large order with India's shipbuilding industry, asking Indian shipyards to help build 24 ships. Many netizens are puzzled by this news. Why? As we all know, our country is one of the two global shipbuilding oligarchs, having gathered the three pearls of the global shipbuilding field. Under these circumstances, we have a good relationship with Russia, and since the start of the Russo-Ukrainian conflict, we have supplied a large amount of materials to Russia. So why doesn't Russia seek our shipbuilding services instead of theirs? Is India's shipbuilding industry stronger than ours?
Although India has recently become ambitious, aiming to become one of the top five global shipbuilding nations, it is far from matching our capabilities. However, do you know that Russia has its own difficulties. Why does Russia seek India for shipbuilding? It's not because of a developed shipbuilding industry, but rather because Russia has money with nowhere to spend it. Since the start of the Russo-Ukrainian conflict, the United States and Western countries no longer purchase Russian energy, and Russia has been excluded from the SWIFT system. This has led to US dollars and euros becoming as useless as waste paper in Russia.
On the other hand, India is aggressively purchasing Russian oil. How does it settle the payments? Giving US dollars or euros is useless to Russia, so India pays in rupees. Russia would prefer rubles, but India must have rubles to give. Thus, out of necessity, Russia accepts a large amount of rupees. After receiving them, Russia realizes it has been deceived. Why? For a long time, Russia-India trade has been almost one-way, with Russia selling energy to India. India is not an industrial powerhouse and does not have many goods to sell to Russia. This results in Russia receiving a large amount of rupees, which are as useless as waste paper and cannot be spent.
Moreover, Russian officials have stated that over the past two years, the rupee has been depreciating, which means that the rupees stored in Russia's national treasury cause Russia to suffer an annual loss of 5% to 10%. Imagine holding onto this money that cannot be spent; it's truly a source of great anxiety. So, out of necessity and after much thought, Russia believes that India's shipbuilding industry can still develop and build some ships. Although it's more expensive, slower, and less reliable than China, at least it accepts rupees, which belong to Indian shipyards. Therefore, out of necessity, Russia can only say, "Alright, let India help Russia build 24 ships." In this way, the rupees piled up in Russia's national treasury can at least be spent a little, preventing them from rotting away and continuously depreciating in the future.
So, everyone has noticed that for a country like Russia, it really needs to find another currency besides the US dollar to help it conduct foreign trade. Otherwise, after selling its oil and natural gas, which are as valuable as gold and silver, it would truly suffer a total loss, with no tears left to shed. You can't always let India take advantage like this. In the future, could the renminbi possibly play the role of a communication bridge? If Russia-India trade is settled in renminbi, would Russia no longer suffer such a great loss?