Although only one voting member openly opposed the decision, this does not necessarily indicate that the other voting members and officials without voting rights truly supported the Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 50 basis points in September.

Last month, the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 50 basis points. The minutes from this meeting, which will be released at Beijing time in the early hours of Thursday, may ultimately reveal the extent of disagreement among policymakers over a decision that surprised many economists. At that meeting, one governor opposed the decision, marking the first time in 19 years.

Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated at the post-meeting press conference that support for a 50 basis point rate cut was "broad." Even the dissenting governor, Bowman, agreed that it was time to ease monetary policy, but she preferred to start with a smaller 25 basis point cut to guard against what she saw as still-present inflation risks.

However, Powell also acknowledged that the "discussion around this decision was very diverse," and that Federal Reserve policymakers' forecasts for what will happen in the next three months are unusually dispersed.

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In the dot plot released at the Federal Reserve's September meeting, policymakers expected interest rates to fall by an additional 0 to 75 basis points by the end of the year. This divergence aligns with the Federal Reserve's September 2022 forecasts, when officials were still raising rates and debating how much they needed to increase to curb inflation. However, such divergence had never been seen before, and did not reappear until September 2016.

The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes provide a detailed record of the back-and-forth communication between policymakers and staff during each two-day meeting. These minutes include sections on the economic and financial outlook, officials' views on appropriate monetary policy, and the risks they believe the economy faces.

Although this document is typically released three weeks after each Federal Reserve meeting and is therefore somewhat delayed, it can also better clarify to the public and investors the differences in opinion behind each policy vote. This may also provide clues as to how the Federal Reserve will respond to upcoming economic data.

Economists at Citigroup wrote on Monday that these minutes "may reveal the threshold at which officials are willing to lower policy rates at a faster pace."

Investors currently expect the Federal Reserve to cut the benchmark interest rate by another 25 basis points at the meeting on November 6th to 7th, and to cut rates again by 25 basis points in December.

This document may also more clearly indicate whether the decision to cut rates by 50 basis points was a difficult one for its supporters. Although only one member opposed the move, this does not reflect the views of the seven participants at the meeting without voting rights on this action, nor does it indicate how the voters view their choices.This year's voting member and Richmond Fed Chairman Thomas Barkin said in an interview last week that he supports a 50 basis point rate cut, but he is also open to a smaller rate cut and does not see a significant difference in macroeconomic terms between the two rate cut approaches. He pointed out that starting with a larger rate cut is in line with the policy path proposed by almost all 19 Federal Reserve officials.

For example, nine officials estimate that it is appropriate to carry out four 25 basis point rate cuts throughout 2024, while another seven officials estimate that only three cuts are needed.

Barkin said: "If you are eventually going to cut rates to this range... a 50 basis point rate cut is reasonable. A 25 basis point rate cut is also reasonable. I can fully accept voting for a 50 basis point rate cut."

Powell and other officials have pointed out that the Federal Reserve can adjust the pace and magnitude of rate cuts based on the development of the economy and inflation.

The employment report released last Friday has solidified investors' views that the Federal Reserve will reduce the rate cut to 25 basis points at the meeting on November 6th and 7th. The report shows that non-farm employment increased more than expected, the unemployment rate decreased, and wage growth remained at 4%, still higher than the level that policymakers believe is consistent with their 2% inflation target.

The latest inflation data to be released this Thursday will be the latest key data point in this debate. As long as there is evidence that price pressures continue to ease, policymakers are generally willing to continue cutting rates.