• 2024-06-10
  • 47 comments

Can Gold Really Hedge Against Inflation?

Gold and silver continue to adjust, and there may be a rebound in the short term. If gold breaks below $2,600, it could reach $2,580, which I believe is the lowest point this round can reach. The situation with silver is slightly more complex, but the key in the short term lies in tomorrow's data. According to the CME "FedWatch": The probability of the Federal Reserve lowering rates by 25 basis points by November is 70.4%, and the probability of maintaining the current interest rate is 29.6%. By December, the probability of cumulative rate cuts of 50 basis points is 65.3%, the probability of cumulative rate cuts of 75 basis points is 8.7%; the probability of cumulative rate cuts of 100 basis points is 0%. This greatly affects the prices of gold and silver.

Fortunately, the holdings of the world's largest gold and silver ETFs are increasing, and it is clear that they are also buying on dips. If you carefully watch the two videos I pinned at the top, then you can handle this situation calmly. Why do I pin them even though the views are so low? Because that is the most essential thing I really want to tell you. The reason for the rise in gold and silver this round is currency reset. Before the election, gold and silver will definitely be suppressed, and the dollar will be stabilized, so it can be regarded as normal fluctuations. As ordinary people, we can only grasp the trend. Once the trend is clear, combined with your own cognition, you can discard all noise, and then just leave it to time. So, facing the upcoming global inflation, can gold really defeat inflation?

Advertisement

According to a study by the World Gold Council analyzing 50 years of data, when inflation exceeds 3%, the average annual return on gold is 15%. In 2019, the global inflation rate was 2.21%, a decrease of 0.24% from 2018. In 2020, the global inflation rate was 1.94%, a decrease of 0.27% from 2019. However, the situation began to change from 2021, with the global inflation rate reaching 3.47%, an increase of 1.53% from 2020. By 2022, the inflation rate soared to 7.97%, an increase of 4.5% from 2021. We all know what happened next, gold and silver began to rise. So, what impact do these inflation data have on us? It's good news for savers. If you have a gold account, index funds, or any other form of investment, the increase in interest and savings will bring more returns to your investments, whether through a gold account or index funds.

However, this is not so good for people with "good debt" and "bad debt." I distinguish between good debt and bad debt because debt is indeed divided into good and bad. An example is, if you earn income through investment, such as purchasing a technology property or a multi-family rental property, these bring you passive or semi-passive income, and such investments can be considered assets. To acquire such properties, you may need to take out loans, and such loans can be considered good debt because they bring you income. On the contrary, if you borrow money through credit cards to buy items that will reduce your wealth, such as cars, clothes, or vacations, these will be considered bad debt. Now let's look at the performance of gold and see how it has dealt with inflation over the past four years. Currently, the price of gold is $2,600 per ounce, which is a very good price. As a gold investor, seeing gold break through $2,600 per ounce is indeed exciting.

When the market is unstable, investors usually turn to gold, which is considered a safe haven against inflation, a means of preserving wealth, and a safety net in the investment portfolio. When the market is turbulent, gold is always seen as a "safe haven" to ensure the safety of wealth, especially in terms of large wealth. The more severe the inflation, the better the performance of gold. For example, a 5-gram Royal Mint gold bar. In 2020, four years ago, the price of the gold bar was about $250. Today, the price of this gold bar is $373.98. In comparison, the gold bought for $250 at that time has defeated inflation. Why? If you had $250 in cash four years ago, the face value of the cash would not change because it was not invested, it just remained the same. But with the devaluation of the dollar and the dollar, the purchasing power of $250 will also decrease.

Therefore, by investing this money in gold, you not only hedge inflation, preserve wealth, but also increase the value of the original $250 investment. This means you have gained a 49% return over four years, equivalent to $173.98. For me, gold is a very good investment tool that can preserve your wealth, even pass down to future generations, and achieve such returns, I think it's great. It does prove that gold has defeated inflation. As long as you invest in gold, no matter how much profit you make, you have hedged inflation. This reminds me of the often-said phrase: "The best time to plant a tree was 20 years ago, the second best is now." This sentence is also applicable to my early investment experience. I used to wait for prices to fall before investing, but often nine times out of ten, the prices did not fall but rose, and in the end, I still bought at a higher price.