- 2024-05-26
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Economic Outlook: A Comprehensive View
Around the National Day holiday, regions such as Jiangsu, Guangdong, Liaoning, and Shanghai have held numerous meetings focusing on economic work. Many places have proposed slogans like "reverse scheduling," "mapping combat," and "sprinting in the fourth quarter," demanding efforts to achieve the annual economic growth targets.
Experts have indicated that it is essential to further leverage the driving and supportive roles of major economic provinces, intensify and enhance the implementation of macro policies, and lay a solid foundation for the smooth conclusion of the "14th Five-Year Plan" next year and a good start for the "15th Five-Year Plan."
Policies are being rolled out in a "race against time" to fully sprint in the fourth quarter. Several major economic provinces have recently held meetings and emphasized the need for a state of charge and sprint, rushing to "race against time" in policy-making, and fully intensifying efforts in the fourth quarter.
Regarding the annual economic targets, major economic provinces have demonstrated a sense of responsibility to "strive to be at the forefront and take on major responsibilities." Jiangsu proposed to strive in the fourth quarter and decide the whole year, resolutely completing the annual targets; Shandong emphasized the need to go all out and ensure the completion of the annual economic and social development goals and tasks.
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Faced with difficulties and challenges in the operation of the economy, localities are expected to introduce new incremental policies. Jiangsu proposed to intensify research and reserve, and timely introduce a batch of new incremental policies, fully releasing policy dividends and effects; Ningxia launched a "100-day battle," requiring work planned for next year and beyond to strive to be initiated this year.
Zhong Zhengsheng, Chief Economist of Ping An Securities, told reporters from Shanghai Securities News that incremental macro policies are highly anticipated because the economy still needs policy support. Monetary and financial policies take the lead in landing, which helps to reduce the debt burden of local real economies. It is suggested to expand the use of local special bonds and optimize the debt structure of local governments.
Expand effective investment and accelerate the formation of physical work volume. In response to current domestic issues such as insufficient effective demand, various regions require accelerating progress and scheduling before winter, promoting large project investment and construction, promoting the stabilization of the real estate market, and actively playing the effective leading role of investment.
Ningxia's "100-day battle" requires that national support projects such as "two heavy" and "two new" must be completed ahead of schedule after approval. Data shows that from January to August, Ningxia's fixed asset investment increased by 2.5% year-on-year, lower than the national level. Recent policy deployments reflect that Ningxia has sounded the charge for the "rush work" in the fourth quarter.Shandong, an economic powerhouse, has seized the critical construction period to accelerate the advancement of project construction. At the Shandong Autumn High-Quality Development Major Project Construction Site Promotion Meeting, 706 major projects with a total investment of 657.5 billion yuan were launched collectively, involving fields such as new-generation information technology and biomedicine, further consolidating the "ballast stone" of economic development.
The driving effect of major projects on investment is quite significant. From January to August, the investment in projects with a planned total investment of 100 million yuan or more increased by 7% year-on-year, 3.6 percentage points higher than the growth rate of total investment, driving the growth of total investment by 3.8 percentage points. Luo Yifei, Chief Statistician of the Investment Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, stated that efforts should be accelerated to promote the construction of major projects in the "14th Five-Year Plan," strengthen support for large-scale equipment updates, and continue to expand effective investment.
Zheng Shanjie, Director of the National Development and Reform Commission, recently introduced that 100 billion yuan of the central budget investment plan for next year and a list of 100 billion yuan of "two heavy" construction projects will be advanced within the year, supporting localities to accelerate the implementation of preliminary work and start construction in advance.
Creating consumption hotspots and stimulating the potential of the domestic market
The fourth quarter is a traditional consumption peak season. Beijing, Shanghai, and Tianjin have planned to hold a variety of consumption-stimulating activities. Localities have also accelerated the implementation of consumer goods replacement policies, vigorously developed new types of consumption such as digital consumption and sports event consumption, and created consumption hotspots.
For example, local characteristic activities such as the Sichuan Panda International Consumer Festival, Beijing's "Autumn Charm of the Capital," and Jiangsu's "Golden Autumn Benefits Purchase" will continue in the fourth quarter. Platform activities such as Shanghai Fashion Week were also launched during the National Day period. Various new product launches, first shows, and first exhibitions are held across regions, creating more "Golden September and Silver October" consumption hotspots.
Among them, the Sichuan Panda International Consumer Festival also issued 100 million yuan of consumption coupons for Sichuan's characteristic products such as Sichuan liquor, Sichuan tea, Sichuan cuisine, Sichuan silk, and Sichuan medicinal materials to consumers nationwide, and issued 300 million yuan of "Shu Li An Yi · Huan Xin Life" home decoration consumption coupons.
To stimulate the vitality of sports consumption, Cheng Jing, Deputy Director of the Sichuan Provincial Sports Bureau, stated at a recent press conference that it is expected that Sichuan will hold more than 8,000 events of various levels and types throughout the year, a year-on-year increase of 6%, driving more than 40 million people to participate in national fitness. The total scale of sports consumption in the province is expected to reach 195 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8%.
New urbanization is a "multiplier" for expanding consumption and an "accelerator" for driving investment. It is reported that the National Development and Reform Commission will work with relevant departments to give full play to the important role of new urbanization in expanding domestic demand and provide strong support for economic development.
Wang Qing, Chief Macro Analyst of Orient Jincheng, said to reporters from Shanghai Securities News that the focus of macro policy in the next step is to increase support for resident consumption and unblock the domestic economic cycle. It is suggested to use fiscal tools such as ultra-long-term special treasury bonds to significantly increase the scale of consumption coupons and subsidies in a phased manner, striving to achieve a year-on-year growth rate of about 6% in the total retail sales of social consumer goods.