• 2024-05-01
  • 135 comments

High Uncertainty Calls for Gradual Rate Cuts

Logan pointed out that in order to balance the dual mandate of the Federal Reserve, slowing the pace of rate cuts might be more appropriate.

Dallas Fed President Logan said she supports slowing the pace of rate cuts as the Federal Reserve is normalizing its policy from the highest level in over 20 years.

Logan said she remains concerned about both inflation and employment aspects of the Federal Reserve's dual mandate and outlined some risks in the economic outlook that justify a more cautious pace of rate cuts. Although she does not have voting rights this year, Logan said she supports the Federal Reserve's decision to cut rates in September.

In a prepared speech delivered at an event in Houston on Wednesday, Logan said: "After lowering the federal funds rate by 50 basis points last month, it might be more appropriate to gradually return to a normal policy stance from now on, in order to best balance the risks to our dual mandate goals."

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) unexpectedly cut rates by 50 basis points last month, exceeding the normal level of 25 basis points, due to signs of weakness in the labor market and inflation rates falling near the Federal Reserve's 2% target level.

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The majority of Federal Reserve officials predict that there will be another 50 basis points rate cut this year, which means a 25 basis points cut at each of their remaining two meetings. Seven officials support only another 25 basis points rate cut, while two officials expect no further rate cuts.

Logan last publicly discussed the economy and monetary policy in June, when she appreciated the continued decline in price pressures, calling deflation widespread. She added that despite the cooling, the labor market remains healthy.

Logan said that monetary policy is still restrictive and should continue to suppress demand for housing and other services.

Logan said: "Inflation and the labor market are not far from our goals, rather than being severely overheated. Easing policy will help avoid the labor market cooling more than is necessary to restore inflation to target levels in a sustainable and timely manner."

But she noted that there are various uncertainties in both aspects looking ahead, so rate cuts should be carried out at a more cautious pace.Logan stated that there are still some upside risks in terms of inflation, with consumer spending and economic activity remaining strong, and further easing of financial conditions could boost demand. She said, "I still see a significant risk that inflation could stagnate above our 2% target."

The Dallas Fed chair also pointed out that the labor market is currently more difficult to interpret. Data revisions, accelerated immigration, natural disasters, and strikes, including recent actions by dockworkers on the East Coast and the Gulf Coast, have complicated the state of the labor market.

Logan stated: "These risks indicate that the FOMC should not rush to reduce the federal funds target rate to a 'normal' or 'neutral' level, but should gradually lower interest rates while monitoring the behavior of financial conditions, consumption, wages, and prices."

Logan reiterated that under the possibility of increased investment and accelerated productivity growth, the "neutral interest rate" (which neither inhibits economic growth nor stimulates it) may now be higher. Slowing the pace of rate cuts would allow policymakers to better understand the exact location of the "neutral interest rate" level.

Logan stated, "In this uncertain environment, gradually lowering the policy interest rate will allow time for us to judge the restrictive extent of monetary policy and reduce the risk of over-lowering interest rates and inadvertently pushing up inflation."

Other policymakers also advocate for slower action, with Federal Reserve Chairman Powell urging not to assume that the Fed will continue to cut interest rates by such a large margin. Last week's labor market report showed strong hiring in September, leading to reduced market bets on a significant rate cut by the Fed at its next meeting in November. The market now expects the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points in November, followed by another 25 basis point cut in December.